In the next three months, there may be a dangerous escalation the Syrian conflict, leading to a clash between NATO allies and Russia. Behind this scenario there is the decision taken by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, Sunni countries, to oust Assad and the Alawites from Damascus and split Syria into two. A project whose pattern is the same one Germany used after the Second World War. According to credited Intelligence sources, Ankara’s and Riyadh’s plan supported by Washington aims at dividing the Middle Eastern country in Gharbistan (Western) and Sharqistan (East) under the influence of the leaders of the Sunni coalition nations. Thus, Ankara would make a clean sweep of the Kurds present in Syria. At the same time, the two countries which sponsor radical Islam might provide a way out to ISIS. The problem of the groups connected to Al Qaeda and to Jabhat Nusra Front who are concentrated mostly around Damascus and here, according to Ankara’s and Riyadh’s plan, a portion of territory would be left to Russia, whose task should be eliminating al-Qaeda.
The scenario is very reminiscent of the events that took place in World War II. The Monaco negotiations with virtually no results, as it happened in 1938, then total war with a strong coalition against Assad and, in the end, the dismemberment of the country. This hypothesis is supported by the United States, which support also the Kurds, who have constituted the only concrete opposition against the Caliphate so far. Yet, it clashes with Erdogan’s projects, who wants to take advantage of the Syrian conflict to wipe out the Kurdish armed groups. The same armed groups that are trained and armed by Italy and Germany. Turkey’s and Saudi Arabia’s control over Syria is a risk also for the Christian community which would be persecuted even more, because of the behavior these countries have towards the Christians. For some time now restrictions of religious freedom have been growing in Turkey. In Arabia it is absent all together and any profession of faith other than Islam is persecuted and punished with death.
Russia and Iran oppose this plan. They support Assad and fight Isis with a unique effectiveness. These last days, an expeditionary force (2,000 men) arrived from Tehran, who were joined by special formations, Hezbllah, and Russian Special Forces. The support of these troops to the Syrian loyalist permitted to gain back territories both in Homs and in Aleppo. The strengthening of Assad’s power worries Turkey and Arabia, which would witness also an increase of Iranian and Shiite hegemony in the Middle East. Moreover, the victories of the Kurds against Isis in Iraq and northern Syria created turmoil in Ankara. In this scenario where alliances and enemies are interwoven and merged, Europe and NATO are mute spectators, unable to decide between supporting the Turkish NATO ally and political and opportunist motivations. This absence in decision-making is likely to give way to radicalization in the future scenario where Syria will be divided and without Christians and Kurds.