The real results of the crisis

  • Italiano

After many years of crisis, we shall question whether this can be considered a phenomenon which by its own nature should be temporal or if this is not the time to be aware that the same started in 2001, many years earlier than commonly believed, and that over the years has suffered various genetic mutations that have made ineffective the tools developed to combat it, as they were already obsolete at the moment of their application.

The current phase started in 2007, even if conventionally dated September 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crushed the economies of the West because of the interconnection between markets and intermediaries, and was without doubt caused or at least aggravated by the impudent modalities with which the financial system, without controls, has implemented the speculative bubble. These reasons are largely similar to those that have caused the great crisis of 1929. The comparison between the two crises, net of the unique characterizations of the first one, may enable us to identify deeper reasons than those already outlined and to finally implement decisive structural interventions. The great depression of the ’29 in reality is only the tail of the economic and financial disturbances of the Twenties.

Many observers distinguish it from the one of 2001 not for the cause that would have generated them, considered almost similar, but for the rapid conclusion of the latter determined by a careful monetary policy that was able to contain the catastrophic results that would otherwise arise. Today we can say that the problems of the crisis of 2001 more than resolved were stopped and that this is a sort of a general test for the one started in 2007. Indeed, as we can see, precisely the underestimation of the 2001 crisis had worsened the one that followed.

Certainly, the fact that the two crisis (1929/2001-2007) occurred in different temporal, economic and social scenarios and the reduced incidence of the phenomenon of globalization in the one of the previous century, does not allow a full comparison between the same, except for the most important factor: the growth of social inequality that, as the statistical data shows, has become particularly important in the early years of the new century so as to overcome the peak reached in the years after 1929. The overcoming of the Great Depression of 1929 happened mainly with the reduction of social inequality, while today, especially with the implementation of the austerity policies, this tends to increase further, accentuating the profile of the crisis, leaving unresolved the problem of unemployment and aggravating the insolvency of public and private companies. It is now increasingly evident the gap between productivity growth and a reduced consumption capacity of workers that, contrary to the past, today it is no longer possible to compensate with financial speculative values and private debt.

The close correlation between social inequality and crisis, in particular of the financial markets, is worthy of mandatory interventions that are being invoked transversely and that for this reason would be entirely inappropriate to qualify as Keynesian, or to uncritically ascribe them to the responsibility of the Union Treaty profile considered to be too liberal. The containment of social inequalities must be achieved, firstly, in restoring a balance between EU countries, given the full awareness that the countries in prevailing surplus more than contributing to the development of the weakest ones, follow them determining the increase of the debt exposure.

The inefficiency of the financial markets has made the full mobility of funds in the euro area, instead of an advantage, a serious element of imbalance in credit-debt relations between the countries and has incremented the risk of deflation. If you add to this the unbearable weight of the fiscal pressure, the reduction of the impact on the growth by the enterprises, the fragility of the banks and the increasingly difficult repayment of debts both public and private, the inequality will most likely not suffer any reduction. The result, without of quick interventions, will be an inexorable escape of other countries, after those of the United Kingdom, from the European Union.

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