If it is not a “specific” warning, directed therefore to the ones who want to modify the Fornero reform, it is not far from being so. No matter how you interpret it, the warning contained in the Economic Bulletin of the ECB is clear and urges not to loosen the bolts of the pension readjustments made over the last years. The words used, moreover, are unequivocal and evoke the ‘risk related to the reversal of pension reforms adopted.”
Our “flexiblists”, therefore, are warned. And, reading the analysis of economists from the ECB, we quickly realize that even the topic of economic penalties on cheques, used by supporters of the early quitting, is not welcomed. In practice, after all, the estimates produced by the president of INPS, Tito Boeri, of the costs of the solution Damiano-Baretta (2% cut per every year in advance compared to 66) or of the so-called “quote-100”, do not leave much leeway: I am talking about figures ranging between 8.5 and 10.6 billion euro.
In theory, always following the criteria of Mario Draghi’s group, there could be some glimmer of hope according to the hypothesis of the leader of the Institute in Via Ciro il Grande: the calculation of performance based entirely on contributions for those wishing to resign early the legal deadlines. Simple: it takes in relation to payments made and to the age of the person. There should be no minimum age, because everything should be back anyway.
Too bad, though, that we are in the presence of a contribution system which is only virtual, because it serves only for the calculation of the pension, not for the financing of the system, which was and remains “distributed”. Let’s say it once and for all: still today – and it could not be otherwise – the current pensions are paid from contributions of current workers. And so, both the economists from the ECB and Boeri, and the “flexiblists” know that beyond this great debate there are other deeper issues to consider: the demographic dynamics (Italy is at zero population growth) and the one relating to employment and GDP (we are at flat growth), just to name the main variables.
And, therefore, it appears significantly farsighted the consideration that was a few days ago at a conference made by Professor Mauro Maré, counselor and president of Padoan Mefop (the public company for the development of pension funds): “Maybe it’s time to really think to a basic pension paid from general tax system “.
Translation provided by Maria Rosaria Mastropaolo